Some data on mandatory minimums in the federal sentencing system ... UPDATED with new report with disconcerting (new and old) data

I reviewed a lot of SCOTUS jurisprudence (too) quickly in class today, and I will be eager to talk about all the who, why and how in cases like Blakely and Booker and others as folks see fit.  But, especially because of their enduring importance in modern debates about sentencing policy and practice, I also want to make sure we get to talk about mandatory minimums.  To get the conversation started, here are some general data about mandatory minimum penalties in the federal sentence from this Quick Facts document by the US Sentencing Commission (USSC):

26.1% of all cases carried a mandatory minimum penalty. 

Of all cases carrying a mandatory minimum penalty:
-- 72.7% were drug trafficking;
-- 5.4% were firearms;
-- 4.8% were child pornography;
-- 4.6% were fraud;
-- 4.4% were sexual abuse.

44.3% of offenders convicted of an offense carrying a mandatory minimum were relieved of the penalty because:
-- 21.8% received relief through the safety valve provision;
-- 15.9% provided the government with substantial assistance;
-- 6.6% received relief through both.

The average sentence length was:
-- 141 months for those subject to the mandatory minimum;
-- 61 months for those receiving relief;
-- 24 months for offenders who were not convicted of an offense carrying a mandatory minimum.

I mentioned in class how federal prosecutors can impact the application of mandatory minimums through their charging authority, and the child pornography statutes provide an especially interesting example of how this can work. In this 2012 Report to Congress, the USSC noted:

The Commission’s review of over 2,000 non-production cases has demonstrated that the underlying offense conduct in the typical case in which an offender was prosecuted for possession [with no mandatory minimum] was indistinguishable from the offense conduct in the typical case in which an offender was prosecuted for receipt [with a five-year mandatory minimum].  Yet the Commission’s analysis of §2G2.2 cases from fiscal year 2010 revealed significant unwarranted sentencing disparities among similarly situated offenders based in large part on whether they were charged with possession or receipt.  For these reasons, the Commission recommends that Congress align the statutory penalties for receipt and possession.  There is a spectrum of views on the Commission, however, as to whether these offenses should be subject to a statutory mandatory minimum penalty and, if so, what any mandatory minimum penalty should be.  Nevertheless, the Commission unanimously believes that, if Congress chooses to align the penalties for possession with the penalties for receipt and maintain a statutory mandatory minimum penalty, that statutory minimum should be less than five years.

And here are the latest USSC data in this arena from this Quick Facts document:

The average sentence for offenders convicted of receiving child pornography was 96 months:
-- 90.5% of offenders sentenced for receiving child pornography were convicted of an offense carrying a five-year mandatory minimum penalty; their average sentence was 87 months.
-- 9.5% had a prior sexual abuse or child pornography conviction and were subject to a 15-year mandatory minimum penalty; their average sentence was 185 months.

The average sentence for offenders convicted of possessing child pornography was 68 months:
-- 80.1% of offenders were convicted of an offense not carrying a mandatory minimum penalty; their average sentence was 53 months.
-- 19.9% had a prior sexual abuse or child pornography conviction and were subject to a 10-year mandatory minimum penalty; their average sentence was 129 months

Other areas of particular import and interest in the application of mandatory minimums in the federal system arise in the drug and firearm settings.  Here are USSC Quick Facts on firearm and on drugs and some notable data points:

The average sentence for all felon in possession of a firearm offenders was 64 months.
-- The average sentence for offenders convicted of violating only section 922(g) and under ACCA was 188 months.
-- The average sentence for offenders convicted of violating only section 922(g) but not sentenced under ACCA was 58 months.

The average sentence for drug trafficking offenders was 77 months, but varied by drug type.
-- 96.4% were sentenced to prison.
-- 65.6% were convicted of an offense carrying a mandatory minimum penalty; 57.6% of those offenders were relieved of that penalty.

The prestigious Council on Criminal Justice released this big report last month on the federal criminal justice system with 15 recommendations, and its second recommendation reads as follows: "Congress should eliminate mandatory minimum sentencing laws for all drug crimes and consider eliminating non-drug mandatory minimums while refraining from enacting any new mandatory minimums pending study."

UPDATE on September 9:  I just got an email spotlighting this notable new report released today by the Harvard Law School Criminal Justice Policy Program (CJPP) titled simply "Racial Disparities in the Massachusetts Criminal System."  It is a very long report covering lots of ground and data, but it includes this helpful summary of one key finding and other research quite relevant to our discussions (I have left in footnote numbers, but you will need to click through to see sources):

Taken together, the analysis above indicates that cases involving offenses that carry mandatory and statutory minimum sentences contribute to the disparities we see in incarceration length for people of color.  Defendants of color are more likely to face charges that carry mandatory incarceration time, and these more serious and high-risk sentencing possibilities translate into plea deals that are more likely to involve incarceration and longer sentences.  Further, existing mandatory minimums are rarely applied in cases involving charges commonly faced by White defendants, such a subsequent OUI offenses.

Our findings are consistent with other studies that find that Black and Latinx people are disproportionately impacted by more severe charging decisions.80  A study of the federal system found that racial disparities in how prosecutors charge people with offenses carrying mandatory minimum sentences were a major driver of sentencing length disparities.81  Similarly, a study of racial disparities in the Delaware criminal system attributed the significant racial disparities in incarceration sentence lengths primarily to differences in charge types and the seriousness of charges.82  In addition, numerous studies have found racial and ethnic disparities in prosecutor decisions to seek sentencing enhancements, such as decisions to designate people as “habitual offenders”83 and decisions to pursue charges that require mandatory minimum sentences.84  For example, a study of the exercise of prosecutorial discretion to bring charges carrying mandatory minimum sentences in Pennsylvania found that Latinx people in the criminal system were nearly twice as likely to receive a mandatory sentence as White people in the criminal system.85  Another study found that federal prosecutors charged cocaine weight amounts that “bunched” just above the threshold to trigger a mandatory minimum sentence more often for Black and Latinx defendants than for White defendants.86   After the Supreme Court required prosecutors to meet a stronger evidentiary threshold for drug amounts, the practice of bunching declined, indicating that prosecutors were previously claiming drug amounts that could not withstand scrutiny.87